How do Russians (not named Vladimir Putin) feel about the ceasefire?

For starters, check out this New York Times piece that showcases FilterLabs analysis, including the following:

As with all things Ukraine/Russia-related, the picture is complicated, though from the borderlands to the big cities, one through line exists: Russians feel it’s time to end the war, but on Russia’s terms.

The article also featured our CEO, Jonathan Teubner, pointing out that “[many] in Russia are reading the proposal as another way for America and the West to take advantage of Russia. [...] This underlying skepticism likely gives Putin the ability to reject a cease-fire that many people want.”

As high-level negotiations continue, FilterLabs is continuing to explore how ordinary Russians feel about a potential ceasefire. We used our data platform Talisman to gather and analyze online discourse in two key locations: 1) the big cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, and 2) the regions bordering Ukraine. 

As yesterday’s NYT piece also noted, FilterLabs analysis “shows that skepticism about a potential ceasefire agreement was widespread, as was general weariness with the war.” A recent op-ed by Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar sums this sentiment up well: “[the] mood in Moscow is war weary.”

So what could an end to the war look like? It is in the details that we start to see divergence within the Russian conversation, along at least three lines.

1. 1. All or nothing. In his op-ed, Zygar also contends that Putin has not relinquished “his original aim: to take Kyiv and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky.” Some Russians still seem to support this aim: “No temporary truce! Either capitulation or we [fully end the Nazis],” insisted a Telegram user in Rostov, one of the regions bordering Ukraine (which, as shown in the chart above, have overall shown more positive sentiment towards the ceasefire). Many in both border and urban areas seem to feel that this idea of total capitulation or nothing is unrealistic, even ridiculing commenters who suggest it. These people advocate for an end on more moderate terms, with a small but vocal minority also wanting the war to end for the sake of Russian soldiers’ lives.
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3. 2. The enemy. The U.S. emerges as a villain in much of the online discourse, though the degree and strategic nature of its perceived villainy is up for debate. Its continued provision of military supplies for Ukraine and threats of increased sanctions have given many a sense that the U.S. must stand to benefit from continuing the war, and is trying to pin Russia into a corner (though some people—including Zygar—think that Putin is in fact effectively painting the U.S. and Ukraine into corners himself). Russians are distrustful of U.S. intentions on the ceasefire and are less willing to view Trump as an ally. In fact, fewer Russians seem optimistic about Trump than a month ago, with some recent commenters describing the U.S. president as a “rabid dog” who thinks he can pull one over on the Russians. “You can’t trust the Americans, including Trump,” declared one Telegram user. “Under the talk of peace, they have already resumed arms supplies. Their words are a complete deception. We are winning and we don’t need any truces.”
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5. 3. Distrust of Ukraine. Many Russian netizens were worried that a ceasefire would give Ukraine a chance to regroup. Others, like this Telegram poster, pointed out that previous deals, like the one proposed in Istanbul in March 2022, had fallen through. Muscovite netizens were particularly unenthusiastic about a potential peace deal, due to an Ukrainian drone attack on their city the same day the U.S.-Ukraine agreement on a ceasefire proposal was announced.
   
   
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2. Explore the Data in Talisman

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4. Have questions of your own? Want more hyper-local insights into hard-to-reach places (like Russia's border regions) around the world? Check out the live data on our platform, Talisman! Subscribers with full platform access can investigate the chart above and the individual artifacts underlying it, and so much more. This is an unfolding story, so we'll continue updating the dashboard with the latest data in the days ahead.
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