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Key takeaways:
- After a burst of enthusiasm at the time of Trump's election, sentiment around the re-elected former president on Russian media has been surprisingly ambivalent.
- Russia’s mainstream press has focused on the improbability of Trump’s comeback, along with his promises to end the war in Ukraine, his possible negotiations with Putin, and his saber-rattling over Greenland and the Panama Canal.
- On Russian social media, cynicism reigns. Few expect Trump to usher in a new era of good feelings between Russia and the United States; instead, they look forward to chaos and dysfunction in Washington.
- Trump’s inauguration saw a new wave of positive coverage in Russia, both on social platforms and in mainstream Russian news.
A war in Ukraine, trade partnerships with India and China, and an economy that seems less stable by the day. As important as Russia was during Donald Trump’s first term in office, it could be even more consequential in his second.
In the run-up to Trump’s inauguration, FilterLabs has been monitoring Russian mainstream and social media. Our data platform, Talisman, has identified key narratives that could reveal Russians’ expectations for Trump’s second term.
The Election Bump
Sentiment around Trump in Russia’s mainstream press has been surprisingly low since his election, when there was a surge of positive sentiment:
Using Talisman, we identified three main narratives around the US presidential election. First, Russian media frequently repeated Trump’s boast that he had won “‘a political victory unparalleled in American history.’” Second, the Russian press portrayed Trump as a “real man,” especially after he survived the assassination attempt.
Third, and probably most importantly, the Russian mainstream press presented Trump’s election as an opportunity. “What does Trump think is important?” asked a Russian senator rhetorically. “He thinks it's important that the U.S. take care of itself first and foremost, not the reordering of the world. That's the fundamental difference between his approach and the approach that the Clinton clan, and (Barack) Obama who joined them, and their protege (Joe) Biden. [...] Remake all of humanity to suit the needs and in the name of the values of this neoliberalism. Trump has nothing like that. He doesn't want to do anything for the sake of some ideology.” Unstated but heavily implied: if the US is less interested in projecting power and its ideals across the globe, then the Kremlin will have an easier time pursuing its own objectives.
On social media, sentiment around Trump’s election was even more positive than it was in the mainstream press. The dominant mood was ebullient. There was much gloating over what Trump’s election might mean for US support of Ukraine. A popular meme showed Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky with a gun to his head.
At the same time, not all of Russia’s “netizens” were so optimistic. Some social media users pointed out that Trump is unpredictable, and that he was willing to interfere with Russia during his first term. As one online forum user wrote, “The sanctions war didn't start under Biden, who was ‘defeated’ today. It started under Trump. And here’s round two. Or will it be a new scenario?”
The Months that Followed
Sentiment gradually declined after the initial burst of conversation about Trump’s election. It dropped to an average level slightly above where it had been before he was re-elected and remained in the same range, relatively stable, for several months.
The Russian mainstream press appeared to have more questions than answers. It reported on the possibility of Trump and Putin resuming contact and the potential for a Ukraine deal, though commentators interviewed by the media pointed out that a cohesive plan was yet to emerge.
However, in their discussions on social media sites, messaging apps, and other forums for online discussion, Russians were increasingly skeptical that Trump would represent a real break with current US foreign policy. In response to reports from the Washington Post that Trump had asked Putin not to escalate in Ukraine, social media users sounded cynical. European heads of state would soon bring Trump around to sending military hardware to Ukraine, to say nothing of the influence of “the American military-industrial complex,” one commenter posted on Russian social platform VK. “After all, it is a ‘gold mine’—you produce weapons —they are destroyed—you produce them again....”
There was also skepticism about whether Trump would deliver on many of his stated plans, and a variety of reactions to them, ranging from bemusement to irony to consternation to indifference. For example, a post on VK sharing a news story on Trump’s Christmas greeting and its threats to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal, speculated, “Did Trump write it seriously or was he just joking?” Reactions in the comments included “What difference does it make to us?” and “It seems like it won't be boring with Trump 🤣🤣🤣.” Discussion on an online forum thread took a more serious note, but expressed similar uncertainty: “It seems more and more that Trump will not serve out his term.. More and more people will become dissatisfied with him… BUT! For now, Trump is rushing forward like a battering ram, breaking and intimidating everyone… And for now, this suits him… And then we'll see.”
Sentiment in discourse around Trump dropped sharply, both news and social media, over New Years. But as we examined the artifacts Talisman had unearthed, we found that the downturn was largely driven by extensive coverage of the Cybertruck explosion outside of the president elect’s Las Vegas hotel.
Gearing up for Trump 2.0
As the inauguration approached, sentiment started climbing again. The mainstream Russian press devoted extensive coverage to a possible meeting between Trump and Putin. “These talks could determine the world order for the next 50 years!” one headline read.
On social media, yet again, there was more cynicism. Trump’s administration would change nothing of importance. “Don’t get your hopes up,” wrote one poster. “The SVO [the Russian abbreviation for the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine] will continue for at least another two years.” But there were positive narratives as well—stories about Xi Jinping and Trump’s phone conversation, progress on a hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, Trump’s appointment of Mel Gibson, Jon Voight, and Sylvester Stallone as his “special envoys to Hollywood”—though this last seemed to be received with a mix of enthusiasm and mirth.
The Russian press also covered Trump’s overtures toward Greenland. It makes sense that establishment news media would devote significant coverage to the Greenland issue: any potential land grab by America would set a geopolitical precedent, and could make good propaganda/justification for Russia’s own illegal land grabs in Ukraine (“Look! We’re not the only ones! This is normal!”).
The Inauguration
Whatever apathy, antipathy, or apprehension may persist in Russians’ views of Trump, it was all but drowned out by the surge of positive sentiment yesterday, when he was inaugurated.
The Russian media has been giving extensive coverage to his declarations upon being sworn in. “‘The Golden Age of America starts now’— and more from Donald Trump’s inauguration speech” read one headline. “Trump Says He Was Saved By God To Make America Great Again,” ran another.
There were many stories on Trump as a peacemaker; skepticism towards his purported peace plan for Ukraine by some Russian experts in the run-up to inauguration appears to have been drowned out for now. Some ultra-nationalist Russian outlets gleefully reported that Western media were “in hysterics,” and that “the European elite has a ‘bad feeling’” after Trump’s executive order recognizing only two sexes.
And on social media, Russians are responding in a variety of ways. Some are praising Trump as a decisive leader who “actually solves his people’s problems,” is “results-oriented,” and “will put things in order.” Many conclude his presidency will be bad news for Zelensky and Ukraine.
The skepticism and eye-rolling we observed in the months leading up to the inauguration persisted in spots: “Trump keeps spouting his bulls**t about how he's going to bend the world and end all wars.” “They say a lot of things about Trump's plans, including about Ukraine. It is unclear who to believe. Let's wait and see what happens.” But there is concern as well—that Trump is a con man who cannot be trusted, that he’s not really an independent actor and is carrying out others’ plans, that he won’t actually be able to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, that he will start World War 3. Still, as the graphs above illustrate, overall sentiment around Trump, both on social media sites and on mainstream Russian news. is up.
Overall, the initial enthusiasm over Trump’s election appeared to have died down until last week. Cynicism had taken its place. Russian social media users were skeptical about Trump’s ability to follow through on his campaign promises. It is also notable that, in the mainstream press and on social media, we rarely encountered endorsement of Trump or his plans. Mockery and ironic memes were far more common.
Was the renewed burst of positivity and excitement a temporary response to a splashy event, or will Trump the President gain a different perspective among Russians than Trump the President Elect? The Kremlin-aligned media will have its own spin to put on things, but the question of Russians’ view of Trump and of the Russian-American relationship will depend largely on what Trump actually does in office.
Russians are clearly used to Trump’s style. As one OK commenter posted yesterday on a story about Trump’s hundreds of planned executive orders, “It's not hard to sign! Try to fulfill it 😂.” Some seem unconcerned about any effect Trump might have on them, or ready to enjoy the show, but many are cautiously waiting to see what the substance of Trump 2.0 will be.
Explore the Data in Talisman
Check out the live data on our data analysis platform, Talisman! You can explore the charts in the interactive dashboard for this newsletter, and subscribers with full platform access can even investigate the individual artifacts underlying the data.
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