With President Biden stepping aside, people around the world have turned their attention to his vice president, Kamala Harris.
It can be hard to know what ordinary people in places like Russia and China are thinking, due to their governments’ control over the internet. But with Talisman—our data platform—FilterLabs can get a close-to-the-ground look at online discourse and see what people are saying on messaging apps, social media platforms, and in comments sections. So over the past week we've been taking a look at public discussion related to Vice President Harris, both before and since President Biden’s announcement that he was dropping out of the race.
On Chinese-language social media, sentiment around Harris began to rise around July 15th, and rose again around the 21st:
Right around the start of the Republican national convention (July 15), there was a wave of speculation about Biden dropping out, and Harris taking his place. “It is only a matter of time before Biden withdraws from the election,” one comment contended. “[The] liberal machines have already started to operate” (a reference to behind-the-scenes efforts to convince Biden to withdraw his candidacy). Another astute commentator pointed out that Harris would probably inherit Biden’s campaign funds: “Kamala Harris can directly use Biden's election funds, while others must raise funds again, which is not economically cost-effective.”
As Harris’s candidacy started to look likely, commenters started to discuss her chances against Trump. Some liked her chances; some didn’t. One post said it wouldn’t matter who the Democrats ran, because the US was polarized into pro- and anti-Trump factions, but another said Harris would highlight Trump’s weakness with suburban and college-educated woman. On Weibo, one commenter wrote that “Harris doesn't understand economics or international politics and only focuses on LGBT. She will not be elected, and will not help the Democratic Party's Senate seats.”
Less substantively, there were also some mocking posts about Harris’s laugh. “Congratulations to Harris,” wrote another user on the same Weibo thread, “old ladies who love to laugh don’t have it too bad.”
In general, though, many Chinese social media users had sophisticated views on US politics. They understood the major players, and how they might play with various parts of the US electorate.
In contrast to Chinese social media, Russian social media saw a gradual decline in sentiment around Harris over the past month, with no detectable bump at the time of Biden’s announcement.
The slight rise in sentiment around July 17th corresponds to a rush of forum posts and comments about a possible Harris candidacy. Russian commentators, like their Chinese counterparts, knew that Harris was a likely pick to replace the ailing Biden.
After the 17th, sentiment dipped. The drop corresponded to a nasty change in tone. There were many comments and posts about Harris’s unpopularity, her limited record of winning campaigns (“they say Harris was a good prosecutor, but this was clearly her limit”), and criticisms of her family life and career path. Harris “actively advocates for women's right to have abortion while she does not have children,” a commenter wrote under a BBC story. On July 21, under a story about Biden dropping out, another comment claimed that “her entire career is built on her relationships with men.” Several posts called her “stupid.” One called her “the eternal giggler.”
The differences between Chinese and Russian social media users suggest the possibility of deeper differences in their attitudes towards the United States. The Russians regard the US as an adversary, full stop. “I don’t care what’s going on in the US,” fumed one commentator, “regardless of who wins, they are still our enemy.” Chinese social media users were more ambivalent, even curious.
So while a President Harris would inherit hostile relations with Russia, she might have a chance to improve relations with China.
Earlier in July the Russian journalist Olga Irisova, editor-in-chief at Riddle Russia, used FilterLabs data as part of her feature-length article on Russian propaganda efforts after the Crocus City Hall attacks.
Irisova’s article is a great example of what Talisman can do for journalists. FilterLabs firmly believes that large language models can support traditional journalism and publishing, rather than undermine them. Irisova’s article uses Talisman to track Kremlin-approved narratives in the aftermath of the attack, showing which ones caught on, which ones failed, and why.
In an age when government propaganda is as prevalent as ever, Talisman can help journalists recognize and combat it.
FilterLabs is a data analytics company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. We leverage natural language processing and tailored data modeling to scour and analyze global online communications and deliver hyper-local insights. Learn more at filterlabs.ai.