During his campaign for the presidency of the United States, Donald Trump frequently voiced his support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling him “do what you have to do” to defeat Hamas.
So one might expect the Israeli media, especially right-wing media, to present Trump’s election as a clear victory for Netanyahu’s coalition.
But according to a FilterLabs analysis, the Israeli reaction has been mixed. FilterLabs used Talisman—our data analysis platform—to gather and analyze sources from Israeli news and social media. What we found was surprising.
When we sampled all coverage mentioning Trump, we found that average sentiment rose at the time of the election, with an especially sharp uptick on social media:
However, average sentiment in stories that mentioned both Trump and Netanyahu took a noticeable downturn across Israeli online discourse, and was more negative overall:
Why the difference?
One reason is simply that day-of coverage included huge numbers of posts reporting Trump’s victory or sharing updates on the results in different states. These, simply on the basis of the type of information being reported, were relatively positive in tone: “Trump is approaching victory in the elections in the United States.” “Former President Trump cruised to victory in Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas.” “The 47th President of the United States: Donald J. Trump.” Some were critical, others celebrated, but many were simply announcing the win.
On the other hand, post-election coverage that also mentioned Netanyahu included many congratulations from Israeli government officials, but also much speculation about the future of US-Israel relations.
Plenty of commentators thought that Trump’s victory was good news for the Netanyahu government. As Netanyahu tries to repair frayed relations with the Pentagon, one article claimed, “he prefers the capricious and easily influenced Trump rule to Kamala Harris as president.”
But others were more cautious. Netanyahu should “be careful what he wishes for,” wrote one opinion columnist. Trump's “return to the presidency can help the supporters of the separatist line in the Republican Party, those who oppose American involvement in international conflicts.”
A roundup of Israeli reactions across the political spectrum found skepticism even on the right. Vice President JD Vance was a special point of concern: “The current deputy is a bum who keeps saying that the United States should not invest money in wars that are not its own. True, he is also pro-Israel, but one must also take into account the separatist side that will be significant in the next four years in Trump's environment.”
All of this suggests that the alliance between Trump and the Netanyahu government is not as iron-clad as it appears. Many Israelis see Trump as a strong leader whose election will benefit Israel and the world, but we found ample evidence that many others see Trump as mercurial, isolationist in his instincts, and suggestible, and fear he does not have the makings of a reliable ally.
In the weeks since the election, sentiment in Israeli news stories including Trump and Netanyahu has trended upward again. There was excitement about the selection of Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, and Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel. One commentary saw the Trump administration as a rare opportunity: “The administration that Trump is building is so fond of Israel that he flanks Netanyahu on the right. In the next two years there is a historic opportunity to make irreversible moves in Judea and Samaria, and also against Iran and its affiliates.”
At the same time, sentiment around Trump and Netanyahu on social media varied. Some worried that Trump’s impulsiveness, and inability to recognize defeat, could rub off on Netanyahu. A headline on Telegram read, “Trump may encourage Netanyahu to do very dangerous things.”
Our spot checking found that the notable downward trend in sentiment over the past week was driven largely by discussion of the International Criminal Court’s issuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, and did not seem to reflect a deteriorating view of Trump. (Indeed, the U.S. and Trump were often mentioned as valued allies: “Luckily Trump is back,” commented one viewer on a TikTok video about the situation.)
There seems to be a lack of trust in Trump, and concern about his potential to impact Netanyahu’s behavior. Biden and Harris were generally disliked in Israeli media, but at least were predictable diplomatic partners. Israelis are feeling isolated or unsure of where they stand regionally and globally—and that’s why a change in US administration has the potential to be so disruptive.
Will the disruption be positive or negative? Israelis still aren’t quite sure.
Check out the live data on our data analysis platform, Talisman! You can explore the charts in the interactive dashboard for this newsletter, and subscribers with full platform access can even investigate the individual artifacts underlying the data.
If you don't have a Talisman account, sign up now—a basic subscription is free!