Inflation in Russia has been a problem for years. Even Vladimir Putin recently admitted that its persistence (9.5% over the previous year) is an “alarming signal,” but he also seems unwilling, or unable, to do much about it.
FilterLabs has been tracking Russian news narratives around inflation. Of course, a major cause of inflation is the Kremlin’s wartime economy, which has to run hot. But we also found a less obvious reason: Putin can’t tame inflation without potentially alienating a crucial demographic.
Looking back at coverage over the past six months, we found significant variation in the sentiment around inflation in the mainstream Russian press:
Our data platform Talisman measures sentiment around a given topic by analyzing millions of artifacts of online discourse, everything from news articles to blog posts and message boards. Talisman also allows us to go beyond sentiment analysis and dig into the artifacts underlying sentiment trends. This in turn makes it possible to identify key narratives.
Even though most major Russian news outlets are either Kremlin-aligned or, if not, at least careful to downplay direct criticism of the government, there were plenty of negative narratives around the inflation issue. For example, a sharp downturn in sentiment around inflation in early October began soon after an announcement from the head of Russia’s Central Bank that fighting inflation might require interest rates above an already astronomical 19%. In the wake of the announcement came stories of economic bad news of all stripes: Rising prices on bus fares, grocery staples, electricity, car insurance, funerals. One article quoted business leaders criticizing the Central Bank, saying its policies are leading to "rising inflation and economic degradation."
And the bad news only continued, well into November—especially after the Central Bank did in fact raise interest even higher into the atmosphere, to 21%, at its Oct. 25 meeting. Week after week, the news was full of rising prices on this or that product in this or that region: taxis, housing development loans, passenger cars, railway tariffs, New Year trees, Borscht, potatoes, tangerines, and more. Many articles criticized the bank’s key rate hikes. One especially hot topic: butter. Skyrocketing butter prices; butter theft; sale of counterfeit butter; restrictions on butter sales.
Concerns about inflation came through even in nationalist and pro-Kremlin outlets. One article in Tsargrad TV — an ultra-nationalist channel that is often Kremlin-friendly but has been increasingly critical of the government over their failure to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine — noted that the 2025 defense budget would require significant borrowing, which could make inflation even worse. It included a gloomy quote from a financial analyst: “All this is inflationary pumping, which they are trying to sell us. There is no smell of economic growth here.”
And yet, as is apparent in the chart above, there were also times when the sentiment around inflation trended in a positive direction. Positive sentiment when inflation is over 8% and interest rates are above 20%? How could that be?
Using Talisman to zero in on periods where sentiment rose, we found the answer. One topic appeared prominently in each period of rising sentiment: pensions.
Again and again, the media assured the public that pensions would keep pace with inflation. For example, between September 9 and October 8 there were numerous stories about a bill finalizing pensions levels for the coming year. Week after week, the Russian news media reported on these pensions. They would grow with the inflation rate in 2025. The amounts for non-working pensioners (such as the elderly) would increase. Pensions for working pensioners (low-income working Russians) would rise as well.
And once again, during the sentiment rise through mid November and December, the news media was full of stories about rising pensions, which would be going out starting in the new year. “The Ministry of Finance has made all pensioners happy,” one headline read. On January 1st, the media reported, pensions would rise by 7.3%. Starting in February, pensions would rise with the real rate of inflation, potentially pushing them even higher. The media pushed other positive stories here and there—increases in “maternity capital” and other social supports, increased interest rates on bank deposits—but the rallying cry was pensions,. There was a temporary sentiment nosedive after the value of the ruble plummeted to a new low on Nov. 27, but as the currency began to recover and the enthusiastic stories about social benefits rolled on, average news sentiment improved as well.
Clearly, the Kremlin has decided that keeping pensioners happy is a priority. Pensions are one of the most critical issues in Russian politics, and pensioners represent a crucial demographic. The last time the government attempted to raise the retirement age, in 2018, it sparked widespread protests and intense public backlash directed at Putin himself.
For Russia’s aging and poor population (with its relatively low life expectancy), pensions are often the sole source of income. Pensions also symbolize trust in the government. Any policies that undermine pensions also erode public trust, often more severely than other political issues or reforms.
The problem, of course, is that indexing pensions to inflation is expensive. To maintain pensioners’ purchasing power, the Kremlin will have to pump even more money into the system, possibly adding even more fuel to an overheating economic engine. And despite the recurring bursts of positive sentiment when the media turns up the volume on pensions, Russians’ concerns about ever-increasing prices, high interest rates and the weakening ruble are clearly not going away. This narrative, though it intensified at certain times, was present throughout the period we sampled. And a look at smoothed, 30-day average sentiment makes clear that overall, the mood around Russia’s rising prices is still on a downward trend from where it was last summer.
Check out the live data on our data analysis platform, Talisman! You can explore the charts in the interactive dashboard for this newsletter, and subscribers with full platform access can even investigate the individual artifacts underlying the data.
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