The repercussions of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad’s sudden fall are still shaking the Middle East, where governments and citizens alike are wondering what it will mean for the war-torn region.
This week FilterLabs has been following the story in Lebanon. Using Talisman, our data platform, we’ve looked at the major narratives emerging in Lebanese media.
In a look at Lebanese online discourse—mainstream news and social media alike—we found that sentiment around Syria has been up and down, reflecting an uncertain and fast-developing situation:
Lebanese media mostly referred to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as “opposition forces” or “armed factions.” Unlike news coverage in Russia and Iran, Lebanese news typically did not refer to HTS as a terrorist organization, even before the opposition groups successfully toppled the Assad regime—though some articles discussed the link between HTS and Al Qaeda, or stated that the Assad regime’s army had described them as terrorists.
In late November and early December, as Syrian rebels advanced toward Damascus, articles on what the rise of HTS might mean for the region began to appear. A Lebanese news site reported that Iraq was tightening its border with Syria, and another discussed Syrian refugees in Turkey who were hoping to come home. Highlighting the regional importance of a stable Syria, a December 5 article quoted Turkish President Recep Erdogan saying that the Syrian regime must “urgently” engage with its people to reach “a comprehensive political solution.”
As we analyzed average sentiment in the online discourse (see chart above), FilterLabs noticed a gradual drop in sentiment beginning around the time that the Assad regime fell. Looking closer at the news media and social media artifacts driving the shift, we found substantial amounts of negative coverage of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah (often referred to as “the party”). One commentator after another pointed out that without Assad, Iran would have no easy way to supply and arm Hezbollah. There was discussion of Hezbollah’s tactical failures in Syria, as well as of repercussions of Assad’s downfall for Hezbollah. As one commentator wrote, “In the context of the situation, the ceasefire agreement with Israel may seem to embody Hezbollah’s loss of its capabilities and future, but in reality, the fall of Assad, and what it means in terms of cutting off the party’s land supply and funding route, is the most important loss. Simply put, because rebuilding the party’s capabilities has become impossible.”
The winner, ultimately, was thought to be Israel. There was concern that Israel could expand into Syria, realizing Netanyahu’s desire for a “Greater Israel” that extended beyond the Golan Heights.
When FilterLabs looked at the artifacts under the uptick in sentiment around Syria that began around December 14th, we found more hopeful stories. There were articles about Christian Syrians pledging to work with HTS to rebuild Syria. One story covered an interview in which the head of HTS talked about Kurdish autonomy, the possibility of a Druze minority state, and administrative decentralization. He called for a reconstruction with “the widest national participation.”
We also looked at discourse around Syrian refugees and displaced Syrians, and here too we found a steady rise in sentiment in recent weeks. There was plenty of concern, such as about countries wanting to return displaced Syrians immediately or end refugee applications, but also much hope.
While the fall of Assad represents a serious setback for Hezbollah, the Lebanese media seems more interested in discussing the future. Though the ongoing conflict between Hamas, Hezbollah, and Israel is a major concern, there is also optimism about a peaceful, even pluralistic Syria.
Check out the live data on our data analysis platform, Talisman! You can explore the charts in the interactive dashboard for this newsletter, and subscribers with full platform access can even investigate the individual artifacts underlying the data.
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